1.Ocean Express + E-commerce Large Item Door-to-Door Delivery
Recently, Pinduoduo's overseas version, TEMU, tested the ocean express large item door-to-door service. They attempted system integration with several shipping companies to achieve fully visualized management throughout the service. It is still unclear to what extent TEMU's ocean express large item door-to-door service can scale, but such attempts may further improve the cross-border logistics infrastructure for large items door-to-door.
In Western countries, logistics for small e-commerce parcels is relatively mature, with services available from DHL, UPS, USPS, etc. However, door-to-door services for large items like refrigerators, washing machines, and TVs are very expensive in the West because they lack a mature large item e-commerce logistics network like that in China.

In China, companies such as SF Express, Best Express, Zhongtong Express, Deppon Express, and RRS Logistics provide door-to-door delivery services for large items ordered from e-commerce platforms, along with installation, after-sales service, and repair, often with free shipping offered by the platforms.

Currently, the e-commerce large item door-to-door network in Western countries is underdeveloped because overseas e-commerce platforms or sellers are reluctant to invest heavily in marketing and subsidies to build up order volume, which is essential for creating logistic distribution density within a region, and thus forming a nationwide or regional large item express network.

If platforms like TEMU invest heavily in subsidies to increase order volume initially, and once a certain order density is achieved, logistics providers would be willing to invest in building a regional e-commerce large item door-to-door logistics network.

Some shipping companies, ports, and overseas trucking companies are starting to plan, leading to the formation of overseas large item door-to-door express networks and accelerating a new round of improvements in cross-border e-commerce infrastructure. Once this network is established, the commercialization of more large items and the reduction in fulfillment costs for large item logistics will have a positive impact on the industry.

2.Full Freighter Direct Flights, Multi-Port Entry, Regionalized Delivery
In 2023, e-commerce platforms like TEMU and SHEIN drove a surge in demand for air freight, with daily cross-border e-commerce air shipments from China estimated at no less than 10,000 tons. Such a massive volume of parcels requires injection at multiple ports in Western countries and customs clearance.
For example, in the United States, customs clearance previously occurred mainly at Los Angeles and New York. Now, it has expanded to include Dallas, Miami, Chicago, and several other ports, with potential future expansion to even more ports.

As order density increases, more full freighters will be used for multi-port entry, dropping orders closest to consumers for localized customs clearance and delivery, making multi-port clearance and regionalized last-mile delivery a future trend.

E-commerce platforms can accelerate global e-commerce logistics infrastructure by driving traffic and subsidies, leading to improved fulfillment systems worldwide. In the chicken-or-egg scenario, the "chicken" clearly comes first: without e-commerce orders, logistics providers cannot follow with services and infrastructure development.

During peak seasons when overseas postal services face warehouse overloads and delivery delays, logistics companies, supported by sufficient order volumes, can establish regional proprietary courier networks, a task that would be impossible with lower order volumes. In 2023, several logistics companies in Western countries began experimenting with localized regional delivery services, forming regional courier or local express companies. This trend is expected to grow in 2024, presenting new opportunities for Chinese cross-border logistics companies.

The aggregation of e-commerce platform shipments not only drives port development but also fosters many regional delivery companies, indicating a future evolution in cross-border direct parcel services: “Full Freighter Direct Flights + Multi-Port Entry + Regionalized Delivery”.

3.The Era of Cross-Border E-commerce Express Logistics
The trend of “Full Freighter Direct Flights + Multi-Port Entry + Regionalized Delivery” will further usher in the era of cross-border e-commerce express logistics.
In 2023, the era of cross-border e-commerce small packet express began, marked by two significant events.

First, Cainiao proposed a global five-day delivery standard for e-commerce express. Additionally, in August 2023, the leading industry group Zongteng Group's YunExpress launched two B777F all-cargo flights from Shenzhen to Paris, France, operating six flights a week, with dedicated cargo stations at airports in Shenzhen and France, and proprietary collection and delivery services. On this China-France route, they achieved faster delivery times than DHL, UPS, and FedEx, by 1-2 days, at only about 60% of DHL’s prices.

Today, fully managed e-commerce platforms demand higher performance standards from logistics providers, prompting an upgrade from e-commerce small packets to e-commerce express. Cross-border e-commerce express, distinct from commercial express, forms a global e-commerce express network.

Well-known companies like DHL, UPS, and FedEx operate hub-and-spoke networks, with global freight hubs such as FedEx's Memphis, UPS's Louisville, and DHL's Leipzig, from which they radiate services through hub-and-spoke air networks.

Under the past 40 years of a WTO-driven globalized manufacturing landscape, the international express giants have leveraged cargo planes to transport primarily samples and documents, which are highly unpredictable in terms of sender and recipient directions, making it difficult to concentrate orders. They rely on global freight hubs for centralized cargo processing, followed by multi-level distribution and delivery, e.g., using B777 or B747 large intercontinental planes from Asia to core hubs in the West, then smaller aircraft like the B757 or B767 from these hubs to secondary hubs.

In the era of e-commerce logistics, the layout of the global e-commerce logistics network will undergo significant changes. Instead of a hub-and-spoke model, a point-to-point approach will prevail. For instance, all-cargo flights from China to the U.S. or Europe, whether to New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Dallas, Chicago, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, or London, will fly directly to these cities, clear customs, and deliver locally.

Currently, there is a significant imbalance in China's trade with the rest of the world, with planes fully loaded on outbound flights and potentially empty on return. This is a challenge under the backdrop of express cargo globalization, requiring breakthroughs from chartered to scheduled flight rights and exploring global through-flights, necessitating more overseas coordination and capability building.